Financial Times<\/a> J\u0101nis Ka\u017eo\u010dini\u0161, b\u00fdval\u00fd poradca pre n\u00e1rodn\u00fa bezpe\u010dnos\u0165 v Loty\u0161sku a b\u00fdval\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f zahrani\u010dnej spravodajskej slu\u017eby.<\/p>\nPobaltsk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty preto intenz\u00edvne buduj\u00fa svoj obrann\u00fd potenci\u00e1l. Koniec koncov, s\u00fa to krajiny NATO, tak\u017ee napriek Trumpov\u00fdm vyhl\u00e1seniam m\u00f4\u017eu d\u00fafa\u0165 v podporu spojencov. „Spolu s rast\u00facou \u00fazkos\u0165ou existuje pocit, \u017ee pobaltsk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty s\u00fa v\u010faka svojmu \u010dlenstvu v NATO bezpe\u010dnej\u0161ie ako kedyko\u013evek predt\u00fdm. Je to paradox,“ prip\u00fa\u0161\u0165a litovsk\u00e1 premi\u00e9rka Ingrida \u0160imonyt\u0117ov\u00e1. PocitBezpe\u010dnos\u0165 prudko vzr\u00e1stla od minuloro\u010dn\u00e9ho vstupu do Aliancie susedn\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov \u2013 F\u00ednska a \u0160v\u00e9dska. Baltsk\u00e9 more sa tak zmenilo na „vn\u00fatorn\u00e9 jazero NATO“. A Rusko tam bolo stla\u010den\u00e9 zo v\u0161etk\u00fdch str\u00e1n.<\/p>\n
V posledn\u00fdch mesiacoch rusk\u00fd dikt\u00e1tor Putin opakovane vyhl\u00e1sil, \u017ee nem\u00e1 v \u00famysle \u00fato\u010di\u0165 na krajiny NATO (hoci kedysi tak\u00e9to z\u00e1ruky o Ukrajine d\u00e1val). A vo svojom inaugura\u010dnom prejave 7. m\u00e1ja dokonca vyzval Z\u00e1pad, aby bol priate\u013eom a zabudol na star\u00e9 s\u0165a\u017enosti. Tak\u00e9to vyhl\u00e1senia v\u0161ak neodr\u00e1dzaj\u00fa od ostra\u017eitosti susedn\u00fdch kraj\u00edn Aliancie.<\/p>\n
Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00e9 zlo\u017eky pobaltsk\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov pozorne sleduj\u00fa v\u0161etky rusk\u00e9 pohyby. Pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa \u0161tandardn\u00fd model na pos\u00fadenie ruskej hrozby \u2013 \u010di u\u017e m\u00e1 \u00famysel, vojensk\u00e9 sp\u00f4sobilosti a sp\u00f4sobilosti. Pobaltsk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty vedia, \u017ee t\u00fa\u017ebu za\u00fato\u010di\u0165 a „znovu z\u00edska\u0165 kontrolu nad historick\u00fdmi \u00fazemiami“ si Moskva v\u017edy v\u00e1\u017eila od rozpadu ZSSR. Samozrejme, vzh\u013eadom na koncentr\u00e1ciu v\u0161etk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch zdrojov v Ukrajine Rusko nebude ma\u0165 v bl\u00edzkej bud\u00facnosti vojensk\u00fa sp\u00f4sobilos\u0165 za\u00fato\u010di\u0165 na NATO. Kreme\u013e v\u0161ak rozhodne \u010dak\u00e1 na spr\u00e1vnu chv\u00ed\u013eu.<\/p>\n
Rusk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny vojenskej reformy, predstaven\u00e9 minul\u00fd rok, po\u017eaduj\u00fa zdvojn\u00e1sobenie po\u010dtu vojakov a vytvorenie Leningradsk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho okruhu umiestnen\u00e9ho v bl\u00edzkosti Pobaltia, takmer 40 000 vojakov do roku 2026, s v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm n\u00e1rastom tankov a obrnen\u00fdch vozidiel.<\/p>\n
S v\u00fddavkami na obranu okolo 6-7% HDP sa rusk\u00fd obrann\u00fd priemysel zr\u00fdch\u013euje, u\u017e je schopn\u00fd produkova\u0165 a\u017e \u0161tyri mili\u00f3ny delostreleck\u00fdch gran\u00e1tov ro\u010dne, ako aj stovky tankov a obrnen\u00fdch vozidiel. \u00c1no, toto s\u00fa v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inou low-tech zariadenia pre low-tech vojnu, a napriek tomu s\u00fa teraz rusk\u00e9 tov\u00e1rne v\u00fdrazne pred z\u00e1padn\u00fdmi, pokia\u013e ide o objemy. A prechodom na vojnov\u00fa ekonomiku bude pre Kreme\u013e dos\u0165 \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9 vr\u00e1ti\u0165 sa sp\u00e4\u0165.<\/p>\n
Preto v posledn\u00fdch mesiacoch prich\u00e1dzaj\u00fa obavy z mo\u017en\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku v nasleduj\u00facom desa\u0165ro\u010d\u00ed nielen z pobaltsk\u00fdch, ale aj zo z\u00e1padoeur\u00f3pskych hlavn\u00fdch miest \u2013 z Berl\u00edna, Par\u00ed\u017ea, Lond\u00fdna. To je d\u00f4vod, pre\u010do krajiny NATO, ako to po\u017eadoval Trump (ale ani nie tak kv\u00f4li nemu, ale kv\u00f4li ruskej agresivite), maj\u00fa v \u00famysle v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch rokoch v\u00fdrazne zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 v\u00fddavky na obranu najmenej na 3% HDP, \u010do je v\u00fdrazne viac ako dvojpercentn\u00e1 po\u017eiadavka Aliancie.<\/p>\n
Nakoniec, Rusko, napriek niektor\u00fdm \u00faspechom na fronte v tomto roku, je hlboko uviaznut\u00e9 v Ukrajine. Ozbrojen\u00e9 sily Ukrajiny kone\u010dne dostali siln\u00fa pomoc so zbra\u0148ami a mun\u00edciou od Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov, \u010do umo\u017en\u00ed vyrovna\u0165 vojensk\u00fa rovnov\u00e1hu. A s pr\u00edchodom viac\u00fa\u010delov\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010diek F-16 na Ukrajinu bude dokonca pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165 z\u00edska\u0165 vzdu\u0161n\u00fa prevahu, a teda proti\u00fatok.<\/p>\n
Av\u0161ak aj ke\u010f sa Ukrajine so silnej\u0161ou podporou z\u00e1padn\u00fdch spojencov podar\u00ed odradi\u0165 rusk\u00fa agresiu a dokonca aj proti\u00fatok, pobaltsk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty by nemali po\u013eavi\u0165. U\u017e je ka\u017ed\u00e9mu jasn\u00e9 o schopnosti Moskvy vies\u0165 hybridn\u00e9 vojny, m\u00f4\u017ee pou\u017ei\u0165 r\u00f4zne destabiliza\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fatoky, od kybernetick\u00fdch \u00fatokov a\u017e po agit\u00e1ciu miestnych rusky hovoriacich komun\u00edt. Tieto men\u0161iny tvoria \u0161tvrtinu obyvate\u013estva Est\u00f3nska a Loty\u0161ska. A \u010do je najd\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161ie, s\u00fa ve\u013emi n\u00e1chyln\u00ed na kreme\u013esk\u00fa propagandu. \u010clovek mus\u00ed len nav\u0161t\u00edvi\u0165 f\u00f3ra rusky hovoriacich obyvate\u013eov Est\u00f3nska a Loty\u0161ska, aby pochopil ich t\u00fa\u017ebu po ruskej pomste.<\/p>\n
A Putin, hoci si v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti nedok\u00e1\u017ee poradi\u0165 s Ukrajinou, si u\u017e v hlave uchov\u00e1va sny sta\u0165 sa rusk\u00fdm vodcom, ktor\u00fd dok\u00e1\u017ee napadn\u00fa\u0165 Severoatlantick\u00fa alianciu, rozlo\u017ei\u0165 ju a doby\u0165 Z\u00e1pad.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Pred dvoma rokmi svet veril vo v\u00ed\u0165azstvo Ukrajincov nad „druhou arm\u00e1dou sveta“ na bojisku. Ozbrojen\u00e9 sily Ukrajiny dok\u00e1zali zastavi\u0165 siln\u00fa ofenz\u00edvu agresora, zni\u010di\u0165 jeho elitn\u00e9 jednotky, premeni\u0165 najnov\u0161ie rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 vybavenie na \u0161rot a za\u010da\u0165 znovu z\u00edskava\u0165 straten\u00e9 \u00fazemia. Toto presved\u010denie prin\u00fatilo z\u00e1padn\u00e9 krajiny r\u00fdchlo zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 vojensk\u00fa pomoc Ukrajine. A pomerne r\u00fdchlo, aby sme nahradili […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25525,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[371,21,2816,476,53,576,12,6,172,58],"class_list":["post-25524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vojna-v-ukrajine","tag-estonsko","tag-hlavne-spravy","tag-ingrida-simonyte","tag-litva","tag-lotyssko","tag-ruske-televizne-kanaly","tag-rusko","tag-rusko-ukrajinska-vojna","tag-sankcie-voci-rusku","tag-vojenska-pomoc-ukrajine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25524\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25525"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}