{"id":21383,"date":"2023-12-15T15:51:05","date_gmt":"2023-12-15T14:51:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/razvedka.info\/sk\/2023-12-analytici-isw-predpovedali-co-by-sa-mohlo-stat-v-pripade-uplnej-okupacie-ukrajiny\/"},"modified":"2023-12-15T15:51:05","modified_gmt":"2023-12-15T14:51:05","slug":"analytici-isw-predpovedali-co-by-sa-mohlo-stat-v-pripade-uplnej-okupacie-ukrajiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/2023-12-analytici-isw-predpovedali-co-by-sa-mohlo-stat-v-pripade-uplnej-okupacie-ukrajiny\/","title":{"rendered":"Analytici ISW predpovedali, \u010do by sa mohlo sta\u0165 v pr\u00edpade \u00faplnej okup\u00e1cie Ukrajiny"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ak v d\u00f4sledku hypotetick\u00e9ho zastavenia z\u00e1padnej pomoci Ukrajina prehr\u00e1 vojnu a jej \u00fazemie bude okupovan\u00e9, rusk\u00e9 jednotky sa ocitn\u00fa ove\u013ea bli\u017e\u0161ie k hraniciam NATO, n\u00e1klady na obranu Z\u00e1padu sa stan\u00fa „astronomick\u00e9“ a hrozba pre Eur\u00f3pu sa v\u00fdrazne zv\u00fd\u0161i. K tomuto z\u00e1veru dospeli analytici In\u0161tit\u00fatu pre \u0161t\u00fadium vojny v Osobitn\u00e1 spr\u00e1va<\/a> s n\u00e1zvom „Vysok\u00e1 cena straty Ukrajiny“.<\/p>\n

V tejto spr\u00e1ve t\u00edm ISW zd\u00f4raz\u0148uje, \u017ee zabavenie cel\u00e9ho \u00fazemia Ukrajiny nie je nemo\u017en\u00fdm scen\u00e1rom, ak Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty nasledovan\u00e9 eur\u00f3pskymi krajinami \u00faplne zastavia vojensk\u00fa pomoc Ukrajine.<\/p>\n

\u00abTak\u00fdto v\u00fdsledok by priviedol zbit\u00fa, ale jasaj\u00facu rusk\u00fa arm\u00e1du priamo k hraniciam NATO, od \u010cierneho mora po Severn\u00fd \u013eadov\u00fd oce\u00e1n. Pod\u013ea americk\u00fdch spravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eieb ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da s podporou Z\u00e1padu od febru\u00e1ra 2022 zni\u010dila takmer 90% inv\u00e1znych s\u00edl ruskej arm\u00e1dy, ale Rusi tieto straty pracovnej sily kompenzovali a buduj\u00fa svoju priemyseln\u00fa z\u00e1klad\u0148u, aby kompenzovali materi\u00e1lne straty ove\u013ea r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie, ako umo\u017e\u0148ovala ich predvojnov\u00e1 kapacita<\/em>„, pripom\u00ednaj\u00fa analytici In\u0161tit\u00fatu pre \u0161t\u00fadium vojny.<\/p>\n

Ak rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da vyjde z tejto vojny v\u00ed\u0165azne, bude „do roku 2022 ove\u013ea bojaschopnej\u0161ia a ove\u013ea v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ia ako rusk\u00e9 pozemn\u00e9 sily“. Rusk\u00e1 ekonomika sa postupne zotav\u00ed, preto\u017ee sankcie sa nevyhnutne uvo\u013enia a Moskva n\u00e1jde sp\u00f4soby, ako ob\u00eds\u0165 alebo zmierni\u0165 tie, ktor\u00e9 zostali. Postupom \u010dasu rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da aktualizuje svoje zbrane a obnov\u00ed svoju s\u00fadr\u017enos\u0165, spoliehaj\u00fac sa na bohat\u00e9 sk\u00fasenosti s \u0165a\u017ek\u00fdmi mechanizovan\u00fdmi bitkami v Ukrajine. Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da so sebou prinesie aj pokro\u010dil\u00e9 syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161nej obrany, ktor\u00e9 m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 zranite\u013en\u00e9 iba vo\u010di americk\u00fdm stealth lietadl\u00e1m \u2013 lietadl\u00e1m, ktor\u00e9 USA z\u00fafalo potrebuj\u00fa na odstra\u0161enie a konfront\u00e1ciu s \u010c\u00ednou.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee por\u00e1\u017ekou Ukrajiny by Rusko mohlo predstavova\u0165 v\u00e1\u017enu konven\u010dn\u00fa vojensk\u00fa hrozbu pre NATO prv\u00fdkr\u00e1t od roku 1990 v \u010dasovom r\u00e1mci, ktor\u00fd bude do zna\u010dnej miery z\u00e1visie\u0165 od toho, ko\u013eko Kreme\u013e investuje do svojej arm\u00e1dy. V tomto pr\u00edpade bud\u00fa n\u00e1klady Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov a \u010fal\u0161\u00edch kraj\u00edn NATO na ochranu Eur\u00f3py pred \u010fal\u0161ou hrozbou z Ruska ove\u013ea vy\u0161\u0161ie, ako si v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina \u013eud\u00ed uvedomuje, uv\u00e1dzaj\u00fa autori spr\u00e1vy.<\/p>\n

Experti ISW zd\u00f4raz\u0148uj\u00fa, \u017ee v tomto pr\u00edpade si vybrali najkonzervat\u00edvnej\u0161iu a najskromnej\u0161iu mo\u017enos\u0165 rozmiestnenia rusk\u00fdch s\u00edl, ktor\u00e9 m\u00f4\u017ee Moskva nasadi\u0165 na okupovanej Ukrajine a v Bielorusku, ak sa priprav\u00ed na r\u00fdchly a v\u00e1\u017eny \u00fatok na NATO.<\/p>\n

V pr\u00edpade \u00faplnej okup\u00e1cie Ukrajiny by Rusko mohlo nasadi\u0165 tri pln\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy (napr\u00edklad 18., 25. a 8. arm\u00e1du kombinovan\u00fdch zbran\u00ed) na \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny na hraniciach Po\u013eska, Ma\u010farska, Slovenska a Rumunska. A div\u00edzie umiestnen\u00e9 na v\u00fdchodn\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch hraniciach by Rusk\u00e1 feder\u00e1cia mohla presun\u00fa\u0165 na samotn\u00fa Ukrajinu ako rezervu pre frontov\u00e9 div\u00edzie, ako aj nasadi\u0165 jednotky v Bielorusku na trvalom alebo nomin\u00e1lnom rota\u010dnom z\u00e1klade: v\u00fdsadkov\u00fa div\u00edziu (tri pluky) a mechanizovan\u00fa pechotn\u00fa div\u00edziu (pravdepodobne tri pluky).<\/p>\n


\n

V takom pr\u00edpade by Rusko mohlo pohrozi\u0165 okam\u017eitou mechanizovanou ofenz\u00edvou proti jednej alebo viacer\u00fdm krajin\u00e1m NATO s najmenej \u00f4smimi div\u00edziami (ktor\u00e9 zah\u0155\u0148aj\u00fa viac ako 20 mechanizovan\u00fdch alebo tankov\u00fdch plukov a brig\u00e1d) a tromi v\u00fdsadkov\u00fdmi plukmi podporovan\u00fdmi zna\u010dn\u00fdmi rezervami, vr\u00e1tane 1. tankovej arm\u00e1dy, ktor\u00e1 mala by\u0165 v\u017edy hlavnou \u00fadernou silou proti NATO. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by Rusko vykonan\u00edm tak\u00e9hoto \u00fatoku mohlo st\u00e1le ohrozi\u0165 pobaltsk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty a F\u00ednsko silami, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa u\u017e pr\u00edtomn\u00e9 v susedn\u00fdch regi\u00f3noch Ruskej feder\u00e1cie, a posilami, ktor\u00e9 m\u00e1 Moskva v \u00famysle rozmiestni\u0165 pozd\u013a\u017e f\u00ednskych hran\u00edc. Rusk\u00e9 pozemn\u00e9 sily bud\u00fa z\u00e1rove\u0148 pokryt\u00e9 hustou sie\u0165ou protivzdu\u0161nej obrany, ktor\u00e1 pozost\u00e1va z protilietadlov\u00fdch a protiraketov\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov dlh\u00e9ho doletu S-300, S-400 a S-500 pokr\u00fdvaj\u00facich cel\u00fd front.<\/p>\n


\n

Pod\u013ea ISW by potom Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty museli „Nasadi\u0165 ve\u013ek\u00e9 po\u010dty americk\u00fdch vojakov na v\u00fdchodn\u00fa hranicu NATO od Baltsk\u00e9ho po \u010cierne more, aby ste odradili rusk\u00fa agresiu a boli skuto\u010dne pripraven\u00ed porazi\u0165 Rusov. USA by tie\u017e museli „natrvalo posla\u0165 v\u00fdznamn\u00fa \u010das\u0165 svojej flotily stealth lietadiel do Eur\u00f3py“. ISW pripom\u00edna, \u017ee obrann\u00e1 strat\u00e9gia NATO sa spolieha na vzdu\u0161n\u00fa prevahu nielen na ochranu jednotiek pred nepriate\u013esk\u00fdm \u00fatokom, ale aj na kompenz\u00e1ciu relat\u00edvne men\u0161ieho po\u010dtu pozemn\u00fdch s\u00edl a obmedzen\u00fdch z\u00e1sob delostrelectva. Preto by pre Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty potreba udr\u017ea\u0165 v Eur\u00f3pe ve\u013ek\u00e9 mno\u017estvo stealth lietadiel schopn\u00fdch zni\u010di\u0165 rusk\u00e9 syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161nej obrany mohla v\u00e1\u017ene naru\u0161i\u0165 schopnos\u0165 Ameriky \u00fa\u010dinne reagova\u0165 na \u010d\u00ednsku agresiu vo\u010di Taiwanu.<\/p>\n

Obnovenie kontroly Kyjeva nad cel\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm Ukrajiny vr\u00e1tane Krymu je z\u00e1rove\u0148 pre Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty a NATO ove\u013ea d\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161ie, ako sa m\u00f4\u017ee zda\u0165, tvrdia analytici. Ak by Ukrajina oslobodila svoje \u00fazemia v r\u00e1mci hran\u00edc z roku 1991, tlak na NATO by sa drasticky zn\u00ed\u017eil a najbli\u017e\u0161ie rusk\u00e9 jednotky by boli od Rumunska vzdialen\u00e9 takmer 800 km. \u010cierne more by sa v skuto\u010dnosti stalo vn\u00fatorn\u00fdm „jazerom“ NATO, preto\u017ee v pr\u00edpade oslobodenia Krymu by \u010ciernomorsk\u00e1 flotila samozrejme smerovala do Novorossijska. Moskva by e\u0161te mohla spr\u00edsni\u0165 svoju vojensk\u00fa kontrolu nad Bieloruskom a rozmiestni\u0165 tam svoje sily, ale tak\u00e1to hrozba pre NATO by vyzerala ve\u013emi odli\u0161ne, ak by Ukrajina zostala ve\u013ek\u00fdm a siln\u00fdm nez\u00e1visl\u00fdm \u0161t\u00e1tom pozd\u013a\u017e ju\u017enej hranice Bieloruska.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ak v d\u00f4sledku hypotetick\u00e9ho zastavenia z\u00e1padnej pomoci Ukrajina prehr\u00e1 vojnu a jej \u00fazemie bude okupovan\u00e9, rusk\u00e9 jednotky sa ocitn\u00fa ove\u013ea bli\u017e\u0161ie k hraniciam NATO, n\u00e1klady na obranu Z\u00e1padu sa stan\u00fa „astronomick\u00e9“ a hrozba pre Eur\u00f3pu sa v\u00fdrazne zv\u00fd\u0161i. K tomuto z\u00e1veru dospeli analytici In\u0161tit\u00fatu pre \u0161t\u00fadium vojny v Osobitn\u00e1 spr\u00e1va s n\u00e1zvom „Vysok\u00e1 cena straty […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21384,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[6],"class_list":["post-21383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vojna-v-ukrajine","tag-rusko-ukrajinska-vojna"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21383\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}