{"id":20799,"date":"2023-11-21T19:03:02","date_gmt":"2023-11-21T18:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/razvedka.info\/sk\/2023-11-putinizmus-po-putinovi\/"},"modified":"2023-11-21T19:03:02","modified_gmt":"2023-11-21T18:03:02","slug":"putinizmus-po-putinovi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/2023-11-putinizmus-po-putinovi\/","title":{"rendered":"Putinizmus po Putinovi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Vladimir Putin ned\u00e1vno nazna\u010dil, \u017ee by mohol zosta\u0165 prezidentom Ruska do roku 2030. Zmeny \u00fastavy z roku 2020 mu umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00fa pred\u013a\u017ei\u0165 jeho vl\u00e1du. Je v\u0161ak nepravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee za 10-12 rokov bude st\u00e1le pri moci. V tom \u010dase sa nahromadilo pr\u00edli\u0161 ve\u013ea rozmarov na to, aby sa o\u010dak\u00e1vala dlhotrvaj\u00faca gerontokratick\u00e1 vl\u00e1da z jeho strany a jeho sprievodu.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><strong><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Putinizmus v ohrozen\u00ed<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Najvidite\u013enej\u0161\u00edm a bezprostredn\u00fdm rizikov\u00fdm faktorom pre Putinovu vl\u00e1du je rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e1 vojna. Ak sa strat\u00ed, Putinova legitimita a jeho re\u017eim sa dostan\u00fa pod tlak a m\u00f4\u017eu sa zr\u00fati\u0165. R\u00fdchle a preva\u017ene pokojn\u00e9 obsadenie Krymu bolo vrcholn\u00fdm \u00faspechom Putinovej vl\u00e1dy. Naopak, dlhotrvaj\u00face boje a strata cenn\u00e9ho polostrova by boli jeho \u00fapadkom a kone\u010dn\u00fdm koncom.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">\u010eal\u0161ie rizikov\u00e9 faktory s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu s\u00favisia s \u010fal\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdzvami v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, najm\u00e4 na Kaukaze. Hospod\u00e1rska recesia a jej soci\u00e1lne d\u00f4sledky, environment\u00e1lne a priemyseln\u00e9 katastrofy alebo dom\u00e1ca politick\u00e1 nestabilita s\u00fa \u010fal\u0161\u00edmi potenci\u00e1lne nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdmi faktormi pre Putinovu vl\u00e1du. Prigo\u017einovo povstanie v lete 2023 a nepokoje v Macha\u010dkale na jese\u0148 2023 signalizuj\u00fa bezprecedentn\u00fa stratu vn\u00fatornej kontroly.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Putinov zdravotn\u00fd stav sa m\u00f4\u017ee tie\u017e zhor\u0161ova\u0165, aj ke\u010f to nebudeme vedie\u0165 s istotou. Niektor\u00ed, ako napr\u00edklad moskovsk\u00fd Valerij Solovej, dokonca veria, \u017ee samotn\u00fd Putin u\u017e nie je na\u017eive a \u017ee jeho \u00falohu teraz zohr\u00e1va dvojn\u00edk a \u017ee tajomn\u00edk Bezpe\u010dnostnej rady Nikolaj Patru\u0161ev je neofici\u00e1lnym vl\u00e1dcom Ruska.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">V ka\u017edom pr\u00edpade, z nejak\u00e9ho d\u00f4vodu Putin (alebo jeho dvojn\u00edk) zomrie najnesk\u00f4r v roku 2036 a mo\u017eno ove\u013ea sk\u00f4r. Ot\u00e1zka za mili\u00f3n dol\u00e1rov: \u010co sa potom stane s putinizmom? M\u00f4\u017ee s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd re\u017eim pre\u017ei\u0165 s nov\u00fdm najvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm vodcom alebo kolekt\u00edvnym veden\u00edm, ktor\u00e9 bude pokra\u010dova\u0165 v Putinovom odkaze? Alebo Putinov syst\u00e9m utrp\u00ed viac \u010di menej ve\u013ekolep\u00fd kolaps.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Toto nie je len zauj\u00edmav\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka pre politick\u00fdch analytikov. Je to v\u00fdzva aj pre rusk\u00fdch ob\u010danov, ako aj pre odborn\u00edkov v oblasti medzin\u00e1rodn\u00fdch vz\u0165ahov, ekonomiky a kult\u00fary na celom svete. Mali by sa Rusi a Nerusi, zahrani\u010dn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a s\u00fakromn\u00ed investori, dom\u00e1ce a medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e9 organiz\u00e1cie pripravi\u0165 na politick\u00fa kontinuitu, alebo by sa mali pripravi\u0165 na radik\u00e1lne zmeny v najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej krajine sveta?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><strong><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Hladk\u00fd sk\u013aznutie do Putinizmu 2.0?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Niektor\u00ed pozorovatelia Ruska o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa usporiadan\u00fd prechod moci v r\u00e1mci s\u00fa\u010dasnej politickej elity a \u0161trukt\u00fary. To bude pravdepodobne znamena\u0165 pokra\u010dovanie s\u00fa\u010dasnej formy vn\u00fatorn\u00e9ho riadenia a vonkaj\u0161ieho spr\u00e1vania. V takomto scen\u00e1ri je mo\u017en\u00e1 adapt\u00edvna evol\u00facia v r\u00e1mci s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, a nie jeho zvrhnutie. Re\u017eim by sa mohol degradova\u0165 na e\u0161te centralizovanej\u0161\u00ed a neostalinistickej\u0161\u00ed. M\u00f4\u017ee sa tie\u017e vr\u00e1ti\u0165 k protodemokracii Je\u013ecinovho zosnul\u00e9ho prezidentsk\u00e9ho \u00faradu.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Ale ak\u00e9 pou\u010dn\u00e9 s\u00fa historick\u00e9 lekcie a komparat\u00edvne \u00favahy, na ktor\u00fdch s\u00fa tieto predpoklady zalo\u017een\u00e9? Je pravda, \u017ee c\u00e1rske aj sovietske Rusko opakovane odovzdalo moc nov\u00e9mu vodcovi v autorit\u00e1rskom alebo totalitnom kontexte. Ostatn\u00e9 postsovietske re\u017eimy tie\u017e zmenili svojich vodcov, pri\u010dom si zachovali autorit\u00e1rske syst\u00e9my, ako aj kontinuitu el\u00edt.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Tieto predch\u00e1dzaj\u00face rusk\u00e9 alebo in\u00e9 postsovietske transform\u00e1cie sa v\u0161ak uskuto\u010dnili v r\u00e1mci ur\u010dit\u00fdch form\u00e1lnych alebo neform\u00e1lnych in\u0161titucion\u00e1lnych obmedzen\u00ed zdeden\u00fdch zo vzdialenej alebo ned\u00e1vnej minulosti. Patria sem dynastick\u00e9 princ\u00edpy, vl\u00e1da jednej strany alebo zjednotenie region\u00e1lnych klanov. Monarchick\u00e9, komunistick\u00e9, patriarch\u00e1lne alebo in\u00e9 zdeden\u00e9 trad\u00edcie poskytovali explicitn\u00e9 alebo implicitn\u00e9 pokyny. Usmer\u0148ovali, obmedzovali a uis\u0165ovali akt\u00e9rov zapojen\u00fdch do rokovan\u00ed a vykon\u00e1vania prenosu moci.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Ale ak\u00e9 siln\u00e9 s\u00fa dnes r\u00f4zne form\u00e1lne obmedzenia a neform\u00e1lne pravidl\u00e1 spr\u00e1vania v Rusku? Ak\u00fd je skuto\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdznam ruskej \u00fastavy, legislat\u00edvy a medzin\u00e1rodn\u00fdch zml\u00fav na jednej strane a korpor\u00e1tneho ducha s\u00fa\u010dasnej elity, vz\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho re\u0161pektu a politick\u00e9ho priate\u013estva na strane druhej? S\u00fa niektor\u00e9 z t\u00fdchto form\u00e1lnych a neform\u00e1lnych in\u0161tit\u00faci\u00ed alebo ich kombin\u00e1cia schopn\u00e1 zmierni\u0165 pokojn\u00fd prechod, ako aj stabilizova\u0165 nov\u00fa rovnov\u00e1hu? Tieto ot\u00e1zky s\u00fa k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 pre bud\u00facnos\u0165 Ruska, ale nie je \u013eahk\u00e9 na ne odpoveda\u0165.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><strong><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">In\u0161titucion\u00e1lne zneu\u017e\u00edvanie a \u00fapadok<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Za posledn\u00fdch 24 rokov Putin a spol. systematicky oslabovali, potl\u00e1\u010dali alebo deformovali v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu rusk\u00fdch ofici\u00e1lnych in\u0161tit\u00faci\u00ed. V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina \u0161trukt\u00far, siet\u00ed a prostred\u00ed \u2013 \u010di u\u017e ide o n\u00e1rodn\u00e9 vo\u013eby alebo s\u00fakromn\u00e9 vlastn\u00edctvo, rusk\u00fa pravosl\u00e1vnu cirkev, \u00fastavn\u00fd s\u00fad, m\u00e9di\u00e1 alebo politick\u00e9 strany \u2013 bola kompromitovan\u00e1 manipul\u00e1ciou, in\u0161trumentaliz\u00e1ciou, odch\u00fdlen\u00edm sa od princ\u00edpov aa) V rozsahu povolenom ustanoveniami tohto dohovoru Dokonca aj najd\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161ia a najvplyvnej\u0161ia poz\u00edcia v Rusku, poz\u00edcia prezidenta, m\u00e1 nejasn\u00e9 postavenie od zvl\u00e1\u0161tneho p\u00f4sobenia Dmitrija Medvedeva v \u0148om v rokoch 2008-2012.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Stoj\u00ed za to pripomen\u00fa\u0165, \u017ee posledn\u00e9 tri zmeny vedenia v Rusku boli protichodn\u00e9 a neist\u00e9. V roku 1985 bola kandidat\u00fara Michaila Gorba\u010dova na post gener\u00e1lneho tajomn\u00edka \u00dastredn\u00e9ho v\u00fdboru CPSU predlo\u017een\u00e1 a\u017e po v\u00e1\u017enych sporoch v politbyre. V roku 1991 sa Boris Je\u013ecin uch\u00e1dzal o prezidenta Ruska vo vo\u013eb\u00e1ch, ktor\u00e9 zah\u0155\u0148ali nieko\u013eko alternat\u00edvnych kandid\u00e1tov, od Vadima Bakatina po Vladim\u00edra \u017dirinovsk\u00e9ho. Nieko\u013ekokr\u00e1t potom bol Je\u013ecin na pokraji odstr\u00e1nenia moci. Koncom roku 1999 \u010delil Vladim\u00edr Putin a jeho nov\u00e1 strana Jednota impozantn\u00e9mu politick\u00e9mu s\u00faperovi vo vo\u013eb\u00e1ch do \u0160t\u00e1tnej dumy vo forme strany Rodina. A\u017e po Rodinovom n\u00edzkom v\u00fdsledku v parlamentn\u00fdch vo\u013eb\u00e1ch podporili rusk\u00e9 oligarchick\u00e9 klany Putina ako prezidentsk\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta v roku 2000.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Tieto prenosy moci zah\u0155\u0148ali v\u0161etky viac \u010di menej v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 neform\u00e1lne interakcie. Uskuto\u010dnili sa prostredn\u00edctvom ur\u010dit\u00fdch zdeden\u00fdch a akceptovan\u00fdch postupov vr\u00e1tane volieb v rokoch 1991 a 1999. Ot\u00e1zkou je, ak\u00e1 bude neform\u00e1lna met\u00f3da a verejn\u00fd mechanizmus na ur\u010denie Putinovho n\u00e1stupcu alebo s\u00e9rie n\u00e1stupcov. Probl\u00e9m rusk\u00e9ho n\u00e1stupn\u00edctva je viacrozmern\u00fd a jeho rie\u0161enie je v\u00e1gne vo viacer\u00fdch aspektoch.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><strong><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Tri v\u00fdzvy pre Putinizmus 2.0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Po prv\u00e9, nie je jasn\u00e9, ak\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky bude ma\u0165 vo\u013eba toho \u010di onoho nov\u00e9ho vedenia pre k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 zainteresovan\u00e9 strany. Bud\u00fa schopn\u00ed zlep\u0161i\u0165, udr\u017ea\u0165 si alebo strati\u0165 svoje poz\u00edcie, vplyv, majetok a\/alebo slobodu? A ak \u00e1no, ak\u00e9 vysok\u00e9 s\u00fa st\u00e1vky? M\u00f4\u017eu niektor\u00ed z nich dokonca pr\u00eds\u0165 o \u017eivot.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Odpovede na tieto ot\u00e1zky s\u00fa \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9 nielen pre pozorovate\u013eov, ale aj pre samotn\u00fdch akt\u00e9rov. Za Putina sa spr\u00e1vanie rusk\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00e1tu stalo svojvo\u013en\u00fdm a neobmedzen\u00fdm. Niektor\u00e9 zainteresovan\u00e9 strany m\u00f4\u017eu pova\u017eova\u0165 ot\u00e1zku n\u00e1stupn\u00edctva za existen\u010dn\u00fa a pod\u013ea toho propagova\u0165 svojich kandid\u00e1tov.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Po druh\u00e9, nie je jasn\u00e9, kto bude alebo nebude chcie\u0165 bojova\u0165 o predsedn\u00edctvo alebo aspo\u0148 o vstup do nov\u00e9ho kolekt\u00edvneho vedenia. V ruskej elite m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 nieko\u013eko mu\u017eov a \u017eien, ktor\u00ed u\u017e zva\u017euj\u00fa svoju kandidat\u00faru. Niektor\u00ed z nich maj\u00fa dostato\u010dn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a\/alebo ekonomick\u00e9 zdroje na to, aby sa kvalifikovali na najvy\u0161\u0161iu funkciu. In\u00ed m\u00f4\u017eu ma\u0165 amb\u00edcie, ale ch\u00fdbaj\u00fa im sk\u00fasenosti a peniaze.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Komu FSB a \u010fal\u0161ie rusk\u00e9 ministerstv\u00e1 a agent\u00fary \u010dinn\u00e9 v trestnom konan\u00ed umo\u017enia z\u00fa\u010dastni\u0165 sa s\u00fa\u0165a\u017ee na obsadenie vo\u013en\u00fdch poz\u00edci\u00ed? Bude pre r\u00f4zne &#8222;autority&#8220; \u013eahk\u00e9 dohodn\u00fa\u0165 sa medzi sebou na tom, kto vst\u00fapi a kto od\u00edde? A \u010do sa stane, ak sa nedosiahne konsenzus.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Ak Putin n\u00e1hle rezignuje alebo zomrie (alebo bude vyhl\u00e1sen\u00fd za m\u0155tveho), s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd rusk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Michail Mi\u0161ustin sa stane \u00faraduj\u00facim prezidentom pod\u013ea \u00fastavy. Vzh\u013eadom na pr\u00edklad Putina, ktor\u00fd sa v rokoch 1999-2000 vy\u0161vihol z premi\u00e9ra na \u00faraduj\u00faceho prezidenta a potom na plnohodnotn\u00e9ho prezidenta, by sa Mi\u0161ustin mohol n\u00e1hle sta\u0165 politickou \u0165a\u017ekou v\u00e1hou. Nie je v\u0161ak ani dobre prepojen\u00fdm vykon\u00e1vate\u013eom, ani zn\u00e1mym verejn\u00fdm \u010dinite\u013eom. Existuje dokonca podozrenie, \u017ee z t\u00fdchto d\u00f4vodov dostal a zast\u00e1va svoju poz\u00edciu. Pravdepodobn\u00ed bud\u00faci premi\u00e9ri pod Putinom (alebo jeho dvojn\u00edkom) m\u00f4\u017eu ma\u0165 podobn\u00e9 charakteristiky.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Tretia a mo\u017eno najzauj\u00edmavej\u0161ia, ako aj m\u00e4t\u00faca ot\u00e1zka: Kto bude voli\u010dom, ktor\u00fd nominuje prezidentsk\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta na v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 schv\u00e1lenie (ako zvy\u010dajne s vopred ur\u010den\u00fdmi v\u00fdsledkami)? Bude to Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00e1 rada, alebo men\u0161\u00ed \u010di v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed okruh \u013eud\u00ed? Kto stanov\u00ed hranice tohto okruhu os\u00f4b s rozhodovacou pr\u00e1vomocou?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Aj ke\u010f je voli\u010d vytvoren\u00fd tak \u010di onak, \u010do sa stane, ak sa selektorom nepodar\u00ed dosiahnu\u0165 konsenzus o po\u017eadovanom novom prezidentovi alebo kolekt\u00edvnom veden\u00ed? Konkr\u00e9tne, \u010do sa stane, ak cel\u00e9 klany, ministerstv\u00e1 alebo oddelenia trvaj\u00fa na r\u00f4znych kandid\u00e1toch? Mohlo by sa dokonca sta\u0165, \u017ee vplyvn\u00ed \u010dlenovia potenci\u00e1lneho elektor\u00e1tu zaujm\u00fa protichodn\u00e9 ideologick\u00e9 poz\u00edcie?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Zvy\u010dajne je v takejto situ\u00e1cii vhodn\u00e9 necha\u0165 rozhodnutie na \u013eu\u010foch. \u013dudov\u00e9 hlasovanie v\u0161ak v Rusku nie je demokratick\u00e9 u\u017e viac ako dve desa\u0165ro\u010dia. Putinove &#8222;vo\u013eby&#8220; s\u00fa navrhnut\u00e9 tak, aby z\u00edskali v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 potvrdenie vopred ur\u010den\u00e9ho vodcu, nie aby umo\u017enili slobodn\u00fa a spravodliv\u00fa s\u00fa\u0165a\u017e vo vo\u013eb\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">V\u00ed\u0165az prezidentsk\u00fdch volieb v Rusku sa vyber\u00e1 vopred, nie hlasovan\u00edm. N\u00e1hle, nepresved\u010div\u00e9 celo\u0161t\u00e1tne vo\u013eby by boli v rozpore so vzorcami spr\u00e1vania, ktor\u00e9 po\u010das dvoch desa\u0165ro\u010d\u00ed zakorenili tis\u00edce vl\u00e1dnych \u00faradn\u00edkov, stran\u00edckych funkcion\u00e1rov, pracovn\u00edkov m\u00e9di\u00ed a policajtov. Usporiadanie skuto\u010dn\u00fdch volieb pre r\u00f4znych n\u00e1rodn\u00fdch, region\u00e1lnych a miestnych byrokratov zodpovedn\u00fdch za ichBez predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facej odbornej pr\u00edpravy a\/alebo externej pomoci to nemus\u00ed by\u0165 mo\u017en\u00e9.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><strong><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Z\u00e1very<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">V procese zmeny vedenia teda existuje trojit\u00e1 neistota \u2013 pokia\u013e ide o sadzby, rozsah prezidentsk\u00fdch kandid\u00e1tov a formu voli\u010dov. Rie\u0161enie \u017eiadneho z t\u00fdchto probl\u00e9mov e\u0161te nie je in\u0161titucion\u00e1lne pripraven\u00e9. Ani \u00fastredn\u00fd v\u00fdbor strany, ani region\u00e1lne klanov\u00e9 zhroma\u017edenia, ani v\u0161eobecne uzn\u00e1van\u00fd dynastick\u00fd princ\u00edp, ani \u017eiadny in\u00fd v\u0161eobecne akceptovan\u00fd postup o nich nem\u00f4\u017eu autoritat\u00edvne rozhodn\u00fa\u0165.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Tak\u00e1to neistota nemus\u00ed nevyhnutne znamena\u0165 chaotick\u00e9 odovzdanie moci alebo dokonca ob\u010diansku vojnu. To v\u0161ak rob\u00ed chaotick\u00e9 interregnum pravdepodobnej\u0161\u00edm ako hladk\u00fd prechod na Putinizmus 2.0. Samozrejme, nie je mo\u017en\u00e9 predpoveda\u0165, ako \u010faleko z\u00e1jdu mo\u017en\u00e9 konfront\u00e1cie medzi vplyvn\u00fdmi zainteresovan\u00fdmi stranami. Na druhej strane predpoklad, \u017ee konfliktom po\u010das odovzd\u00e1vania moci sa d\u00e1 vyhn\u00fa\u0165, by bol pr\u00edli\u0161 optimistick\u00fd.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Namiesto toho sa m\u00f4\u017ee pripravova\u0165 nov\u00fd druh &#8222;obdobia \u0165a\u017ekost\u00ed&#8220;. Ak je odklon od Putinizmu 1.0 neusporiadan\u00fd alebo dokonca n\u00e1siln\u00fd, je nepravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00fdsledkom bude Putinizmus 2.0. Samozrejme, politick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zovanie je n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1 a nev\u010fa\u010dn\u00e1 \u00faloha. Ale u\u017e teraz m\u00f4\u017eeme poveda\u0165, \u017ee in\u0161titucion\u00e1lny deficit v Rusku je potenci\u00e1lne nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd pre v\u0161etky z\u00fa\u010dastnen\u00e9 strany. Rusi aj Nerusi by sa mali pripravi\u0165 na n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd proces n\u00e1stupn\u00edctva. Bud\u00faci rusk\u00fd politick\u00fd re\u017eim sa bude tak \u010di onak l\u00ed\u0161i\u0165 od toho s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\">\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><em><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Prelo\u017een\u00e9 z po\u013e\u0161tiny<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><em><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Text bol publikovan\u00fd v r\u00e1mci projektu spolupr\u00e1ce medzi nami a po\u013esk\u00fdm \u010dasopisom <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.new.org.pl\/\" style=\"color:blue; text-decoration:underline\">Nowa Europa Wschodnia<\/a>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><em><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">Predch\u00e1dzaj\u00face \u010dl\u00e1nky projektu: Ukrajina \u2013 E\u00da: Hor\u00faci koniec rokovan\u00ed, Ukrajina \u2013 \u00datek pred vo\u013ebou, V\u00fdchodn\u00e9 partnerstvo po arabsk\u00fdch revol\u00faci\u00e1ch, V skreslenom zrkadle, opovrhovan\u00fd, Luka\u0161enko ide do vojny s Putinom, Medzi Moskvou a Kyjevom, Klob\u00e1sa je klob\u00e1sa, M\u00f4j \u013dvov, Putin na galejach, Polostrov strachu, Ukrajina vyn\u00e1jden\u00e1 na v\u00fdchode, Nov\u00fd star\u00fd objav, A malo to by\u0165 tak\u00e9 kr\u00e1sne, Novoro\u010dn\u00fd dar\u010dek pre Rusko,  Ak by sme mali diskutova\u0165 o hist\u00f3rii, minsk\u00e1 slep\u00e1 uli\u010dka<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:13px\"><em><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:115%\"><span sans-serif style=\"font-family:Calibri,\">P\u00f4vodn\u00fd n\u00e1zov \u010dl\u00e1nku: <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.new.org.pl\/3380,putinizm_po_putinie_problem_sukcesji_w_rosji.html\" style=\"color:blue; text-decoration:underline\">Putinizm po Putinie<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vladimir Putin ned\u00e1vno nazna\u010dil, \u017ee by mohol zosta\u0165 prezidentom Ruska do roku 2030. Zmeny \u00fastavy z roku 2020 mu umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00fa pred\u013a\u017ei\u0165 jeho vl\u00e1du. Je v\u0161ak nepravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee za 10-12 rokov bude st\u00e1le pri moci. V tom \u010dase sa nahromadilo pr\u00edli\u0161 ve\u013ea rozmarov na to, aby sa o\u010dak\u00e1vala dlhotrvaj\u00faca gerontokratick\u00e1 vl\u00e1da z jeho strany a jeho [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20800,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2288,21,2123,2803,12,6,172],"class_list":["post-20799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vojna-v-ukrajine","tag-andreas-umland","tag-hlavne-spravy","tag-nikolaj-patrusev","tag-ruska-propaganda","tag-rusko","tag-rusko-ukrajinska-vojna","tag-sankcie-voci-rusku"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20799\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20800"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ruwar.org\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}